Friday, December 22, 2006

Sarbatori fericite - Happy Holidays !!!

Craciun fericit si un an nou sanatos si bogat in trenduri si profituri !!!
Merry Christmas and a Healthy New Year full of trends and profits !!!

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Indicii bursieri la final de an..

In ultima zi de tranzactionare a anului 2006, BET a facut o intoarcere brusca exact din acelasi suport amintit de mai multe ori: 7.850. Acest suport a fost testat de nenumarate ori in decurs de mai mult de o luna, rezistand de fiecare data, iar daca primele sedinte de tranzactionare din 2007 vor confirma, atunci cel mai probabil ca vom asista la reluarea trendului ascendent, plecand de la aceasta baza construita in jurul lui 7.850.

BET-C a testat o linie de trend venita din iulie, care a rezistat in ultima zi de tranzactionare a anului 2006. Daca va rezista si in primele sedinte de tranzactionare ale lui 2007, sunt multe sanse sa vedem noi maxime ale indicelui in perioada urmatoare.

Indicele BET-FI este cel care pare cel mai hotarat sa faca noi maxime la inceputul anului viitor. In ultima zi de tranzactionare a lui 2006, BET-FI a trecut peste ultima retragere Fibonacci, de 61.8%, rezistenta testata si in ultimele doua zile bursiere precedente, dar fara succes. Astfel, indicele este pregatit sa atace rapid si agresiv maximele din noiembrie, urmand probabil sa asistam la noi maxime.

Leul isi arata din nou coltzii.. valute. Astazi EURRON a strapuns violent suportul 3.40, scazand chiar si sub 3.37 in timpul sedintei de tranzactionare valutara interbancara, BNR raportand la ora 13 un curs de 3.3801.

Asa cum banuiam intr-un post trecut, caderea redutei 3.40 s-a facut nestingherita de vreo interventie din partea Bancii Centrale, insa in functie de amploarea si viteza continuarii acestui trend sub pragul de 3.40, BNR ar putea interveni in orice moment. Daca in America interventia se face cu vorbe, in Romania probabil va fi nevoie de "cash" din visterie pentru a putea preveni adancirea unui soc economic generat de aprecierea excesiva si accelerata a monedei nationale.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

History Repeats Itself

"History repeats itself in the stock market. Many price patterns and price consolidation structures that stocks form are repeated over and over again."

William J. O'Neil

Trading Quotes

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

Chart of the Day - BET

Indicele BET se apropie periculos de suportul de 7.850 testat de multe ori pana acum iar ruperea acestuia deschide calea spre minimul din 17 noiembrie de la 7.735 si spre urmatorul suport important aflat la 7.500. Ultima zi de tranzactionare a anului 2006 si primele zile de tranzactionare ale anului 2007 vor fi probabil decisive pentru evolutia indicelui pe termen mediu.

Monday, December 18, 2006

Gold Correction

The Bullish Golden Route is having a setback towards the lower uptrend channel support. The 630 line gave way and already retraced 50% of the latest rally (572 - 649). The area between 600 and 610 should be a strong support that will probably bottom this correction.

Sunday, December 17, 2006

SIFele dansand pe ritm de Fibonacci

SIF5 si-a facut vineri cursa pana la ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a ultimei corectii (3.70 - 3.04), retragere aflata la 3.45. Acolo vanzatorii au aparut si au intors pretul, inchizand ziua de vineri tot acolo unde s-a deschis, la 3.37.

La Sibiu, DESIF5-MAR07 a strapuns retragerea de 50% a cursei de corectie (4.42 - 3.20), retragere care a adus vanzatori mai multi ce-au coborat pretul la..

..retragerea Fibonacci de 38.2% a ultimei curse ascendente (3.28 - 3.84). Pentru ca aceasta ultima cursa ascendenta sa continue, pretul nu trebuie sa coboare sub ultima retragere de 61.8% aflata la 3.50.

SIF2 s-a manifestat similar. Pe spot pretul a fost mai jucaus si a intepat retragerea de 61.8% (la 3.16) a corectiei (3.42 - 2.73), dar vanzatorii au avut grija vineri ca inchiderea sa se faca sub acest prag, sub deschidere si pe minim (la 3.11).

Pe futures, DESIF2-MAR07 a trecut fugitiv prin retragerea de 50% a cursei de corectie (4.11 - 2.95), pretul fiind adus apoi rapid sub deschidere pana la..

..38.2% din ultima cursa ascendenta (2.9500 - 3.5650). La fel, cursa ascendenta are sanse in continuare daca pretul nu coboara sub ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) aflata la 3.18.

Urmand evolutia SIFelor in ansamblu, indicele BET-FI a prospectat destul teren peste ultimul prag Fibonacci (61.8%) al ultimei corectii, dar inchiderea s-a facut sub acesta si chiar sub deschidere. Concluzia: inca nu este momentul..:)

Saturday, December 16, 2006

Donchian's 20 Trading Guides

General Guides

1. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.

2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.

3. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.

4. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.

5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.

6. Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation the the chart formation.

7. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons - a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50% profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100%

8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use market orders."

9. Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.

10. Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag.

11. A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue, and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse or a spirited race horse is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

Technical Guides

1. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move. Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected.

2. Reversal or resistance to a move is likely to be encountered:
- On reaching levels at which in the past, the commodity has fluctuated for a considerable length of time within a narrow range
- On approaching highs or lows

3. Watch for good buying or selling opportunities when trend lines are approached, especially on medium or dull volume. Be sure such a line has not been hugged or hit too frequently.

4. Watch for "crawling along" or repeated bumping of minor or major trend lines and prepare to see such trend lines broken.

5. Breaking of minor trend lines counter to the major trend gives most other important position taking signals. Positions can be taken or reversed on stop at such places.

6. Triangles of ether slope may mean either accumulation or distribution depending on other considerations although triangles are usually broken on the flat side.

7. Watch for volume climax, especially after a long move.

8. Don't count on gaps being closed unless you can distinguish between breakaway gaps, normal gaps and exhaustion gaps.

9. During a move, take or increase positions in the direction of the move at the market the morning following any one-day reversal, however slight the reversal may be, especially if volume declines on the reversal.

Richard Donchian

Friday, December 15, 2006

A trader's perspective on the world..:)

"..Traders have no choice but to "ignore reality" and go for the ride. A turret-bound buddy wrote me:

"I don't care about the numbers, the economic data, whether Iraq is in a Civil war, if the President gets impeached, who controls congress, what a company does, whether we fall into a recession or if China buys Europe and turns it into a Disney theme park. My world is defined by what I see on my four 20 inch monitors in front of me. Everything else is noise."

That's what is driving the markets."


Thursday, December 14, 2006

Charts of the Day - SIF5, DESIF5-MAR07, SIF2, DESIF2-MAR07, BET-FI, ATB, BET

O lumanare japoneza lunga ce strapunge rezistenta mediei mobile de 50 zile confirma o potentiala baza aflata deasupra maximelor din februarie, de unde cresterile se pot relua. Avem asadar un semnal de cumparare, cu stop sub suportul reprezentat de maximele aminitite din februarie.

Observam ca piata futures a SIF5 MAR07 a construit o baza similara aflata la ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) de unde au reinceput cresterile, anticipandu-le pe cele de pe bursa cu 2-3 zile inainte, fiind confirmate pe ambele piete astazi.

SIF2 si-a construit o baza atat deasupra maximelor din februarie cat si deasupra mediei mobile de 50 zile, confirmand astazi pe volum reluarea cresterilor si generand un semnal de cumparare, cu stop sub maximele din februarie.

La fel ca DESIF5-MAR07, DESIF2-MAR07 si-a construit baza la ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) si a reinceput cresterile, astazi fiind confirmate pe volum.

BET-FI pare ca si-a incheiat incursiunea spre sud la media mobila de 50 zile, ascensiunea de astazi ajungand la ultima retragere Fibonacci (calculata la inchideri) a cursei de corectie dintre 63.702 si 56.909. Urmeaza retragerea totala spre ultimele topuri.

Ca si o curiozitate, corectia pe ATB s-a incheiat tot la ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%), construind apoi o baza deasupra mediei mobile de 50 zile si reluand astazi cresterile.

BET incearca sa-si construiasca o baza deasupra suportului din jurul lui 7.850 si sa se mentina deasupra liniei de trend ascendent ce provine de la minimul de 7.735 din noiembrie, dar nu reuseste sa sparga cu hotarare rezistenta mediei mobile de 50 zile. Indicele BET nu a confirmat inca o reluare a cresterilor, insa ultimele trei zile de tranzactionare ale anului 2006 ar trebui sa ne aduca aceasta confirmare, altfel nu sunt excluse alte minime.

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Romania si Leul

Romania si leul ei devin vizibile si peste Ocean, fiind descoperite intr-un post pe un blog american, e adevarat, in spiritul altui post legat de Pakistan:))

"In the spirit of my post last night about Pakistan, here is a PDF about Romania which is trying to get into the EU and then the EMU further down the road. The report notes some genuine obstacles to overcome with various imbalances and inflation but what it interesting is that the currency, the Leu (which is difficult to chart), is up 23% against the US dollar in the last two and half years. Oops."

Problema autorului legata de reprezentarea grafica a evolutiei Leului se rezolva insa..

"Yesterday I had a post about Romania and said I could not find a chart of the Romanian leu currency. Well, with a hat tip to Trader Mike, the new Google Finance has it.As I said yesterday, Romania has some clear and obvious obstacles to economic health yet YTD the dollar is down a lot against the leu.Chances are you don't care about the leu but the important thing is that it is becoming easier to access tools that used to only be available through a Bloomberg or some other expensive means. This evolution, although obvious, is very empowering for the do-it-yourselfer. And some bad video to go with this... "

Ceea ce nu stie autorul este ca acel "bad video" (de acord cu el..) de prezentare a Google Finance de mai sus este facut de un roman angajat la Google, Vivi Costache :)) Probabil acesta este motivul pentru care a gasit si graficul USDRON..:))

Random Roger

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Charts of the Day - BRD, AMO, RRC

BRD isi continua scaderea dupa ce suportul mediei mobile de 50 zile a cedat. Urmatorul prag foarte important care va fi probabil bine aparat este 17.7, fosta rezistenta din timpul verii.

Grupul de speculatori anonimi:) par sa-si fi atins scopul, cel putin din punct de vedere tehnic, ducand pretul AMO la maximele din februarie (chiar depasindu-le scurt si marginal) si probabil incepand sa verse din actiuni. Inceputul declinului? Numai ei stiu..:)

Dupa momentul spargerii canalului descendent, RRC a urcat agresiv pana astazi cand isi mai trage sufletul pe fondul marcarii de profit. Pragul de 0.0870 (veche rezistenta si medie mobila) ar trebui sa reprezinte un suport puternic.

Monday, December 11, 2006

Chart of the Day - AMO

Dupa un prim test respins violent al retragerii Fibonacci de 61.8% , AMO si-a strans puterile (a se citi speculatorii) si vineri a trecut in forta, pe volume record, de ultima reduta a matematicianului italian, inchizand deasupra acesteia. Urmarea de astazi a fost..o deschidere (si inchidere) in limita superioara de variatie zilnica (+15%), ramanand acolo aproape intreaga zi de tranzactionare in conditiile in care vanzatorii disparusera din ASK. Nu e rau pentru o companie in prag de faliment..:)

Sunday, December 10, 2006

Chart of the Week - EURUSD

Above we have the Friday eurodollar show (on a 5 minute chart) with around 100 pips up and then around 150 pips down in three hours and a half!:) The event behind the show: Non-Farm Payrolls.

The hourly chart above shows us the triple top of last week and the break of a support around 1.3260, which should become the next resistance on the way back.

Thursday, December 07, 2006

The Right Side

They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.


Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Charts of the Day - SIF5, SIF2, BET-FI, RRC, BET

SIF5 a strapuns luni media mobila de 50 zile, marti a atins suportul format din maximele de la inceputul lui februarie iar astazi a revenit inapoi spre media mobila. Daca in zilele urmatoare se vor face noi maxime si va inchide peste media mobila, trendul ascendent se poate relua, altfel vom asista probabil la noi minime.

O evolutie asemanatoare cu SIF5 a avut si SIF2, acesta chiar reusind astazi sa inchida peste media mobila.

Asa cum observam intr-un post anterior, 56.500 - 57.000 este un suport destul de puternic sustinut si de media mobila de 50 zile din care astazi indicele "a sarit" dupa caderea generata de dublu top si strapungerea unei linii de trend ascendent. Cu toate acestea, daca suportul mentionat nu tine, putem asista la o corectie mai adanca spre maximele din ianuarie - februarie (55.000) si linia de trend ascendent venita din iulie sau chiar spre pragul psihologic de 50.000.

Dupa un mic recul de la primul test al rezistentei canalului descendent, astazi RRC a trecut din nou peste media mobila de 50 zile si a strapuns linia de trend descendent, astfel dand un semnal de cumparare care trebuie confirmat maine.

Canalul ascendent observat intr-un post recent n-a rezistat dar suportul de 7.850 a tinut iar indicele s-a intors astazi, testand canalul ascendent spart. O revenire a trendului ascendent insa nu se poate concretiza decat dupa ce va inchide hotarat peste media mobila de 50 zile, testata fara succes de patru ori in ultimele saptamani.

Tuesday, December 05, 2006

On financial speculations..

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

George Soros

Monday, December 04, 2006

Leul se zburleste la valute..

In graficul saptamanal al EURRON se observa ca ne apropiem de suportul aparat agresiv de BNR in vara anului trecut (3.40). O cadere sub acest prag ar putea determina BNR sa intervina din nou, desi exista destul de multe sanse sa nu o faca si de data aceasta.

Astazi BNR a folosit pentru prima data dupa mult timp o parghie mai voalata de control a cursului de schimb, determinand reducerea dobanzilor prin atragerea a mai putin de 100% din oferta de lei a bancilor din sistem astfel ducand la micsorarea diferentialului de dobanda fata de alte piete, in incercarea de-a reduce apetitul speculatorilor transfrontalieri. (Sursa: ZF)

Daca insa cursul va cadea nestingherit sub 3.40, BNR ar putea interveni la trecerea prin anumite suporturi tehnice cum ar fi 3.35, 3.20, 3.00 sau prin orice alt suport ales de guvernatorul Isarescu:))

USDRON este in cadere libera intocmai cum se afla si dollarul pe pietele internationale (vs. alte monede, in special EUR si GBP). O interventie in forta a BNR pe piata EURRON (in principal) se va face insa simtita si pe USDRON.

Friday, December 01, 2006

Warren Buffett Quotes..

"Associate with people who are better than you. Marry up, employ up, work for your heroes. Associations rub off. Tell me your heroes, I’ll tell you how you’ll turn out. "

"Ben Graham’s success exercise.
Take one hour. Think of the one classmate who you’d like to own 10% of for the rest of their life. 10% of all of their future income. What do you think about? The person who others admire and want to work with. Person who works hard and gives others credit. It’s simple. Select those qualities for yourself.

Now the fun part: who would you want to short? The guy who turns other people off.
Qualities are chosen.

Ben Graham did that. Wrote everything on a piece of paper and developed habits. You will find that you can attain or get rid of qualities accordingly. "

Warren Buffett and the Chicago Graduate School of Business
by Aquamarine Fund Diary