Sunday, August 21, 2011

Silver's Moving

Silver has started moving within a rising channel since July, after a two-month correction.

The 61.8% Fib retracement of the May - July correction (around 43) is now challenged and if broken opens the way for a test of the May highs (around 50) and perhaps for new highs later on.

US Philly FED Survey in Recession Area

..two months after the US Philly FED Survey Slowdown Warning.

Monday, August 15, 2011

CRB Index Touching Support

As discussed in a previous post in the beginning of May, the commodity CRB Index started a correction following three failed tests at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 - 2009 plunge. The target of the correction was the 320 area which has been met recently as can be noticed in the updated daily chart above. The index strongly bounced from the 320 area right on the monthly cycle.

The updated weekly chart below shows that 300 - 320 could prove strong support due to the monthly rising uptrend line (now just above 300) connecting the 2009 and 2010 lows. Any break below 300 could send the index to 250 or even lower, while holding above 300 and turning higher could set the stage for a new test of the April - May 370 area. Trading wise, aggressive traders could go long due to the good risk/reward at this point. However, we should be aware that both daily and weekly charts are still in downtrends.

30-year Low in US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence

..a reaction to the last two weeks markets volatility that may send US GDP growth in recession area.

Sunday, August 07, 2011

US Treasury Bond Yields Leading World Equity Markets Lower

As noted here, here and here, the US 10-year treasury bond yield trends are leading the trends in other asset classes. Last week we had a good example of how US bonds are "leading" the equity markets around the world.

The 2.90 US 10-year Treasury bond yield support level, well discussed in the mentioned posts, eventually gave way and started the plunge on Friday July 29th, as noticed in the updated chart below:

On Monday August 1st, German DAX dropped through key support (6-month uptrend line and 200 SMA), see chart below:

Tuesday August 2nd was the day when key support levels were broken in many equity markets including the US S&P500 Index (levels discussed here, see updated chart below),

the Romanian BETXT Index (levels discussed here, see updated chart below),

and the Dow Jones World Stock Index (levels discussed here, see updated chart below).

US Macro Downturn Charts

Markets Price to Moving Average Snapshot

The summer rally ended in a red sea.