Sunday, July 10, 2011

EURRON Range-Trading Time

The EURRON reversal anticipated in a previous post happened as discussed, reaching each of the mentioned targets (4.15 and 4.19 - see the updated chart above) and then breaking higher in an impulsive move that took the rate to the 61.8% Fib retracement area around 4.23 and spiking towards the rarefied area bordered by 78.6% retracement around 4.2750.

The 4.23 - 4.275 area is a strong resistance that could propel the rate back to 4.33 if breached. A break below 4.19 area could send the rate back to 4.15 and towards this year lows around 4.06. The 4.19 - 4.23 in-between area is no man's land and a potential boring range. However, as long as EURRON stays below 4.23, the odds tilt towards resumption of downtrend by breaking below 4.19 later on.

US Monthly Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Approaches Zero

Sunday, July 03, 2011

US 10-year Treasury Yield Halts on Target

This post title is the answer to a preceding post discussing the importance of the 2.90 level (see updated weekly and daily charts above and below).

The US 10-year treasury note yield halted on targeted mentioned level in June and reversed signaling the potential start of the summer rally in equities, commodities and the continuation of the dollar weakness.

Potential target for reversal is the weekly falling 200SMA and the downtrend line in the 3.40 - 3.50 area.

Markets Price to Moving Average Snapshot

Compare this table with the last week one. Notice the change in color on all three time frames and the switch of all US treasury notes yields from red to green signaling the potential start of the summer rally.

US Consumer Confidence Lower