Wednesday, January 18, 2012

BETFI Index Marches to The Next Target



As discussed in the previous post more than two months ago, the Romanian BETFI Index turned bullish and reached the 20 500 - 21 500 mentioned target area by the end of last year. As also hinted in the same post, this target area was the first stop before going higher towards 23 000 later on this year.
 
In the weekly chart above we see the index challenging the weekly EMA50 that proved strong resistance last year. If successful by the close of this week, BETFI next target is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011 downtrend, the falling weekly SMA200 and a previous congestion area, all converging around 23 000.

In the daily chart below we notice the potential a-b-c correction to the 2011 downtrend with the "c" leg symmetrical with the "a" leg (that reached the previous target area around 21 000) pointing to the same discussed zone around 23 000.


The break of the falling daily SMA200 with increasing volumes in the first weeks of 2012 is also supporting the daily and weekly trending index to reach the next target area around 23 000 until mid February when both monthly and quarterly cycles meet. A longer and deeper correction may follow afterwards.
 

As suggested in the previous post, relative to BETXT, the BETFI Index managed to break out of both daily (chart below) and weekly (chart above) underperformance trends and started overperforming the market which also support the march of the index to the next target. 

15 comments:

Cosmin said...

Sal
Mai vezi valabila varianta expusa in articol legat de evolutia Bet-Fi sau depasirea (posibil temporara) a rezistentei de la 23000 schimba situatia?

Florin TOTH said...

Salut Cosmin,

Intrebarea ta este buna, deocamdata n-ash vedea decat un eventual "overshoot" peste zona de 23000 (spre maxim 24500-25000) pana la mijlocul lunii februarie. Natura trendului ascendent inceput in toamna lui 2011 pare inca a fi corectiva si deci in urma viitorului top, trendul descendent se poate relua.

Cu toate acestea trebuie sa studiem cu atentie urmatoarea corectie deoarece in functie de aceasta ne vom putea da seama daca ea este continuarea downtrendului sau doar o corectie intr-un trend ascendent, caz in care ipoteza celor 3 valuri corective din articol este infirmata iar trendul pe termen mediu-lung devine ascendent.

Cosmin said...

Sal

Cum mai vezi evolutia bet-fi? Crezi ca are sanse sa treaca de 25000 acum sau asistam la distributie in zona topului?

Florin TOTH said...

Salut Cosmin,

Am postat o analiza noua despre BETFI.

Florin

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