Sunday, November 13, 2011

The BETFI Index Christmas Rally



In the context of a global equity markets rebound discussed in a previous post, the Romanian BETFI Index is poised to trend higher until at least end of the year. The critical 25 000 points support(discussed in the last post exploring the BETFI Index) gave way shattering any bullish development and starting a long downtrend that may have ended in the beginning of October.
 
We notice in the weekly chart above the end of the weekly downtrend around 16K at the 161.8% extension of the previous rally (roughly 20K to 27K). If the downtrend is broken next week, the index could target the 20 500 - 21 500 area until end of the year and perhaps 23 000 later on.
 

The daily chart below paints a bullish picture showing a 5-wave downtrend move ending around 15 500 with an October test (the 5th wave) of the August selling climax (3rd wave, notice the spike in volumes) and a broken downtrend line accompanied by increasing volume. The uptrending index could target the 20 500 - 21 500 area (previous support, SMA200 and 50% retracement of the downtrend) until end of the year.


Relative to BETXT Index, the BETFI Index is still underperforming on both weekly (above) and daily (below) charts but with good chances to break the daily underperformance trend and perhaps weekly one later on.


4 comments:

trica said...

Crezi ca aceasta corectie inceputa pe bet-fi are sanse sa se opreasca in 17.500-18000,pe linia de suport a trendului ascendent inceput in octombrie?

Florin TOTH said...

Zona de 17.500-18.000 este intr-adevar un potential suport redutabil (zona de breakout transformata in suport, retragere Fib 61.8%, nor Ichimoku suport, linie uptrend) care ar avea peste 50% sanse sa reziste si sa intoarca indicele intr-un al doilea val ascendent spre zona de rezistenta (deja atinsa) 20.500-21.500.

Daca insa suportul va fi strapuns, nu mai putem vorbi de trend ascendent ci de un nou test al minimelor din octombrie.

Cosmin said...

Sal
Cum mai vezi indicele bet-fi?Are sanse sa treaca de 21000-21500?

Florin TOTH said...

Salut Cosmin,

Am postat o analiza noua cu parerea mea legata de BETFI.

Florin