Saturday, March 26, 2011

Why You Should be Freaked Out About the Stock US

"This is a chart of the US monetary base. In simple terms, it charts how much money the Fed has pumped into the system (at least that it admits). So it's a kind of visual of the Fed hitting the PANIC button: when the monetary base explodes higher, the Fed is FREAKING out.

You'll note that during the Financial Crisis the Fed didn't do much until the autumn of 2008 when it pumped nearly $1 trillion into the system. Think about that, the Fed didn't go nuts pumping money until the stuff REALLY hit the fan.

You'll also note that there's only one other time when the monetary base went absolutely vertical: TODAY.
Indeed, the Fed has pumped nearly $500 billion into the system since the start of 2011. Don't even try to tell me this is QE 2. If it was then the monetary base should have spiked in late 2010, NOT in 2011.

No, this is the Fed FREAKING OUT about the financial system again. And it's a freak out on par with 2008.

So if you think that all is well "behind the scenes" you're in for a rude surprise. Something BIG is going down and it's NOT good.

And rest assured, by the time the mainstream media announces what it is, it will already be in full swing."

Source: Graham Summers via Zero Hedge


Lavinia said...

Cred ca pot fi doua motive.

Bancile lea ale lor inteleg ca au o tona de case pe stoc, pe care nici nu prea le pot vinde, nici nu valoreaza cat in alte dati, nici n-au outlook bun, si ratele pe termen lung probabil vor creste dupa ce se termina qe2 ... which means they still have a problem. Nu stiu ce se mai poate intampla, dar nu-i vad prea bine. Pentru ca numai ei stiu ce au acolo :).

Plus de asta ... statul american trebuie sa returneze peste 1 trilion de dolari datorie si in 2011 si in 2012, ceea ce istoric vorbind e imens pentru ei, si vine intr-o vreme grea, nu in perioada de boom. Bun, vreo 70% e la fed, dar si 30% din suma asta e o suma, cat e la straini si la fonduri si banci, avand in vedere deficitul lor de azi. Pobabil parte vor printa, si va cumpara fed datoria, si in mica parte vor iesi sa ia de la strainii exportatori in us, pentru ca la ce rate sunt, si ce inflatie e deja, si va continua sa fie, nu cred ca rezidentii americani se vor inghesui sa finanteze deficitul :).

Alte motive nu-mi mai vin in minte acum :)

Florin TOTH said...

Dap, ai dreptate! Dar se pare ca mai avem de asteptat putin pana aceste teme sa fie aduse in prin plan.

Foarte faina analiza, multumesc!;)

Lavinia said...

Nu prea stiu daca am dreptate, dar nu prea imi vin in minte alte motive pentru care ar printa asa mult. Oricum, mi se pare un subiect de meditat, sincer :) Da, si eu astept cu interes sfarsitul qe2 :)