Indicii romanesti pe termen lung

Pietele financiare au tendinta sa se intoarca la medii (reprezentate prin EMA50 si SMA200) in orice orizont de timp, tendinta observabila pe grafice zilnice, saptamanale si lunare.

Daca in ultimul timp, in urma trendului descendent, pe graficele zilnice, indicii romanesti se departeaza de medii, pe graficele saptamanale si lunare indicii se intorc la medii intr-o miscare fireasca si necesara pentru a sprijini in continuare trendul ascendent pe termen mediu si lung.

Indicele BET zilnic



Astfel observam graficul BET zilnic cum se departeaza de medii intr-un trend puternic descendent (ADX: 47).


Indicele BET saptamanal

Pe graficul saptamanal observam ca indicele BET se apropie de SMA200 si de suportul puternic din jurul 6.500 - 6.600. In acelasi timp indicatoarele RSI si Stochastic intra in zone istorice de supravanzare, semnaland ca intoarcerea la medii este aproape de final. De asmenea indicatorul ADX (26) arata ca trendul descendent pe graficul saptamanal nu are momentan vigoare.

Indicele BET lunar

Pe graficul lunar, indicele BET se apropie de EMA50 si de suportul puternic mentionat mai sus, acestea aflandu-se in zona SMA200 pe graficul saptamanal, intarind astfel zona de suport. Si pe graficul lunar, indicatorul Stochastic intra in zona de supravanzare iar indicatorul RSI se apropie de aceasta zona, semnaland de asemenea ca intoarcerea la medii este spre final. Indicatorul ADX (43) sugereaza ca pe graficul lunar trendul ascendent are in continuare vigoare.

Indicele BET-C zilnic

Graficul indicelui BET-C zilnic arata cum se departeaza de medii intr-un trend puternic descendent (ADX: 46) si are momentan suport la 5.000 de puncte.

Indicele BET-C saptamanal

Pe graficul saptamanal observam ca indicele BET-C se apropie de SMA200 si de suportul puternic din jurul 4.000 - 4.500. In acelasi timp indicatoarele RSI si Stochastic intra in zone istorice de supravanzare, semnaland ca intoarcerea la medii este aproape de final. De asmenea indicatorul ADX (31) arata ca trendul descendent pe graficul saptamanal are momentan forta redusa.

Indicele BET-C lunar

Pe graficul lunar, indicele BET-C se apropie de EMA50 si de suportul puternic mentionat mai sus, acestea aflandu-se in zona SMA200 pe graficul saptamanal, intarind astfel zona de suport. Si pe graficul lunar, indicatorul Stochastic intra in zona de supravanzare iar indicatorul RSI se apropie de aceasta zona, semnaland de asemenea ca intoarcerea la medii este spre final. Indicatorul ADX (50) sugereaza ca pe graficul lunar trendul ascendent are in continuare vigoare.

Indicele BET-FI zilnic

Graficul indicelui BET-FI zilnic arata cum se departeaza de medii intr-un trend puternic descendent (ADX: 37).

Indicele BET-FI saptamanal

Pe graficul saptamanal observam ca indicele BET-FI se apropie de suportul puternic din jurul 55.000 si spre SMA200 care insa se afla mai departe (45.000) decat in cazul BET si BET-C. In acelasi timp indicatoarele RSI si Stochastic se apropie de zone istorice de supravanzare, semnaland ca intoarcerea la medii este curand aproape de final. De asmenea indicatorul ADX (24) arata ca trendul descendent pe graficul saptamanal nu are momentan vigoare.

Indicele BET-FI lunar

Pe graficul lunar, indicele BET-FI se apropie de EMA50 si de suportul puternic mentionat mai sus, intarind astfel zona de suport dintre 50.000 si 55.000. Si pe graficul lunar, indicatorul Stochastic se apropie de zona de supravanzare iar indicatorul RSI coboara abrupt, semnaland de asemenea ca intoarcerea la medii este aproape de final. Indicatorul ADX (42) sugereaza ca pe graficul lunar trendul ascendent are in continuare vigoare.

Asa cum mentionam intr-un post de la inceputul anului, strapungerea hotarata a suporturilor (75.000 in cazul BET-FI) si esecul strapungerii rezistentei (ultima retragere Fibonacci si test de fost trend ascendent) in cazul BET si BET-C au dus la declansarea unui trend descendent cu tinta clara minimele din noiembrie anul trecut care au fost si depasite intr-o miscare ampla si necesara de intoarcere la medii pe termen lung. In acest post graficele pe termen lung sugereaza ca aceasta miscare de intoarcere la medii este aproape de final (desi aici vorbim de orizonturi de timp de saptamani si luni) si o intoarcere confirmata de la aceste medii va fi semnalul continuarii trendului ascendent multianual. Cu toate acestea, confirmarea unei intoarceri nu avem inca si ca atare trendul pe termen scurt si mediu ramane in continuare descendent.

Time for relief rally in US and around the world..

DJIA Monthly Chart



DJIA Weekly Chart



DJIA Daily Chart



DJIA Hourly Chart

As noted in a previous post, the BLS report on employment triggered a strong recession-related bearish sentiment which sent DJIA through the 12.700 support towards 12.000 next support, probing just below latter around 11.700 where long term support is found (see charts above): 2000 highs and EMA50 on the monthly chart, summer 2006 highs and SMA200 on the weekly chart, second day tested low on daily and hourly charts.

Oversold indicators readings and above mentioned long term support may trigger a relief rally back towards 12.700 resistance area (previous support) where also lies the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest drop. This relief rally will also benefit markets around the world including the Romanian stock market.

Indicii romanesti BET, BET-C si BET-FI

Indicele BET a testat o zona de rezistenta puternica in jurul valorii de 9.700 unde se intalneste ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a ultimei curse descendente (intre 10.500 si 8.500 puncte) si linia de trend ascendent (care a cedat la inceputul lunii noiembrie) transformata in rezistenta. Daca zona de rezistenta mentionata nu va fi strapunsa hotarat, indicele BET se poate intoarce catre SMA200 si EMA50 si apoi chiar spre urmatoarele suporturi 9.000 si 8.500. In caz contrar, indicele are drum deschis catre 10.000 si apoi 10.500 puncte.

Indicele BET-C a reusit sa strapunga linia de tren descendent si sa se inalte peste EMA50 fiind insa oprit de ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a cursei descendente dintre 7.262 si 5.856. Noi teste esuate de a strapunge rezistenta Fibonacci pot genera o retragere spre SMA200 si linia de downtrend devenita suport. In caz contrar 7.000 si 7.200 pot deveni urmatoarele tinte ale trendului ascendent.

BET-FI a strapuns linia de trend descendent si s-a oprit la retragerea Fibonacci de 50% a cursei descendente de la maximul istoric de la 96.452 pana la 64.452. Indicele testeaza linia de trend descendent sparta si transformata in suport, SMA200 si EMA50 precum si suportul puternic din jurul lui 75.000. Daca zona de suport mentionata cedeaza, indicele poate intra pe trend descendent spre 70.000 si 65.000 de puncte. In caz contrar urmatoarele rezistente se gasesc la 80.000 si 85.000 unde se gaseste ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a cursei descendente de care am amintit.

Important de mentionat ca indicatorii nu semnaleaza trend iar oscilatorul Stochastic se apropie de zone de supravanzare in cazul BET-FI si corecteaza zone de supracumparare in cazul BET si BET-C. Perioada urmatoare este critica, indicii aflandu-se la suporturi (BET-FI) si rezistente (BET si BET-C) importante. Strapungerea hotarata a acestora poate declansa un trend in perioada urmatoare, in caz contrar indicii vor ramane in range.

11 Rules For Better Trading In 2008

1. Be data centric in your approach. Take the time and make the effort to understand what works and what doesn’t. Trading decisions should be objective and based upon the data.

2. Be disciplined. The data should guide you in your decisions. This is the only way to navigate a potentially hostile and fearful environment.

3. Be flexible. At first glance this would seem to contradict Rule #2; however, I recognize that markets change and that trading strategies cannot account for every conceivable factor. Giving yourself some wiggle room or discretion is ok, but I would not stray too far from the data or your strategies.

4. Always question the prevailing dogma. The markets love dogma. “Prices are above the 50 day moving average”, “prices are breaking out”, and “don’t fight the Fed” are some of the most often heard sayings. But what do they really mean for prices? Make your own observations and define your own rules. See Rule #1.

5. Understand your market edge. My edge is my ability to use my computer to define the price action. I level the playing field by trading markets and not companies.

6. Money management. Money management. Money management. It is so important that it is worth saying three times. There are so few factors you can control in the markets, but this is one of them. Learn to exploit it.

7. Time frame. Know the time frame you are operating on. Don’t let a trade turn into an investment and don’t trade yourself out of an investment.

8. Confidence and conviction. Believe in your strategies and bet wisely but with conviction. There is nothing more frustrating than having a good strategy work as you expect, yet at the end of the day, you have very little winnings to show for your efforts.

9. Persistence. It takes persistence to operate in the markets. Success doesn’t come easy, and if it does, then I would be careful. Even the best strategies come with losses, and they always seem to come when you get the nerve to make the big bet. Stay with your plan. If you have done your home work, the winning trades will follow.

10. Passion. In the end, trading has to be about your bottom line, but you have to love what you do and no amount of money is worth it if you aren’t passionate about the process. No matter how much success you enjoy, in the markets you can never stop learning.

11. Take care of yourself. No amount of money is worth it if your health is failing or you have managed to alienate yourself from family and friends in the process.

Source:
The TechnicalTake by Guy M. Lerner

Goldilocks economy seems to be over and the Bear family is heading back home!

The Bureau of Labor Statistics report on employment came out with bad news on Friday. The job creation slowed down somehow more than expected (18.000 jobs versus 70.000 jobs expected) though these numbers are sometimes fundamentally revised the next month and are not so much reliable in my opinion despite the huge importance markets give them. Nevertheless, unemployment rose to 5%, up from 4.4% last February, and 4.7% last month. "Rises of that magnitude are rare (see picture above); it's 1.6 standard deviations from the mean, and at the 92nd percentile of monthly changes since 1950. They're even rarer outside recessions; of the 55 rises of 0.3 point or more, just 18 have been in expansions, and most of those were either close to recessions or in jobless recoveries. In fact, the last time we saw a 0.3 point rise was in January 2001, two months before the official cycle peak. More than half the rise in unemployment came from permanent job losers." (Philippa Dunne from The Liscio Report).

The awful BLS report coupled with the dip in ISM manufacturing index below 50 (though this number is just a conventional line in the sand, it needs to stay longer and lower below 50 to give strong signal of recession) give the markets the sentiment recession is on its way in the US (and the three bears - the Bear market - from Grimm Brothers tale are heading back home to disturb Goldilocks sleep and eat their porridge putting an end to the "just right" economy) while the FED prepares another rate cut.

Nevertheless, economists and international analysts predict a recovery starting the second half of 2008. The timing is just right for the November American presidential elections that can provide good support to the stock market throughout this year.

Looking at the carts we see DJIA Index approaching key support around 12.700 points in a rather trendless price action (as indicated by ADX readings). The failure of this strong support gives scope for next support around 12.000 points and may start building a downward bearish channel for the next several months. If 12.700 points support holds (backed by oversold Stochastic readings), we may see a bounce towards the SMA200 and EMA50 in a range driven price action also supported by the end of the month most probable at least 0.25% FED rate cut. If bearish sentiment is strenghend, any bounce will probably stop short of the high of the previous bounce.

Sources:
John Mauldin - Thoughts from the Frontline
Barry Ritholtz - The Big Picture

Charts of the Week - SIFe si BET-FI

SIF1 a reusit sa treaca cu gap ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a corectiei din ianuarie - martie si se indreapta catre maximele din ianuarie.

La SIF2 suporturile au rezistat si si-a continuat ascensiunea, fiind si acesta in drum catre maximele din ianuarie.

Cum era de asteptat, SIF3 a facut spectacol trecand prin toate rezistentele posibile (linii de trend sau extensii Fibonacci) pregatindu-si ajustarea de pret cauzata de acordarea de actiuni gratuite, ajustare care il poate trimite catre maximele din iarna anului trecut (in jur de 2.5).

SIF4 reuseste sa scape de rezistenta maximelor anului 2006 si 2007, trecand cu gap si prin linia de trend ascendent sparta in februarie si transformata in rezistenta, tintind probabil extensia Fibonacci de 161.8% aflata in jurul pretului de 2.20.

SIF5 s-a intors violent din suporturi si aproape si-a atins maximele istorice din ianuarie. Daca acestea sunt ferm depasite, urmatoarea rezistenta se afla in jurul liniei de trend ascendent ce uneste varfurile ultimului an si aproape jumatate.

Dupa ce a trecut de rezistenta din jurul valorii de 66.000 de puncte, indicele BET-FI a spulberat maximul din 3 ianuarie si a continuat in forta deasupra probabil catre 74.000 -75.000 de puncte unde apare linia de trend ascendent ce uneste varfurile din ultimul an si aproape jumatate.

BRD, BET si BET-C

BRD a reusit sa treaca de ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a corectiei din luna martie si asa cum anticipam intr-un post precedent a plecat in tromba catre maximele din februarie (23.6) unde s-a si oprit, corectandu-se pana la mijlocul canalului ascendent si reluand ascensiunea. Daca 23.6 va fi depasit, BRD se poate indrepta catre limita superioara a canalului ascendent (24.5 - 25).

Indicele BET s-a oprit la suporturi si a continuat ascensiunea catre maximele lunii februarie, asa cum anticipam dupa ce ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a corectiei din martie a fost depasita. Maximele istorice din luna februarie ar putea constitui o rezistenta destul de puternica atunci cand vor fi atinse.

Indicele BET-C se inscrie intr-un canal ascendent clar a carui limita superioara poate constitui o rezistenta puternica in jurul valorii de 6200 de puncte.

GOLD, EURUSD and DJIA

As anticipated, GOLD managed to fully retrace to its February highs and even marginally exceeded them before correcting towards the 50-day moving average and the previous resistance (turned support) around the last Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) of the March corrective trip. The Bulls are back in charge after a Doji signaled the resumption of the uptrend.

As noted in a previous post, the COT numbers stopped at the previous resistance turned support (around -130K) and rallied towards -180K accompanied by higher open interest supporting the bulls.

The EURUSD did break out on the monthly charts and marginally exceeded the December 2004 highs which seem to pose strong resistance. Furthermore, we have a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the last autumn correction around the mentioned highs, strenghening the resistance beyond which 1.38 - 1.40 are the next targets.

The DJIA managed to breake the 13000 and the previous uptrend support turned resistance, heading towards the 161.8% Fibonacci expension of the March correction where it might stop given the high overbought readings of many technical indicators. Apart from this, "Sell in May and go away!" saying might reflect again the investors behaviour.

Charts of Note - Indici si SIFe

Saptamana trecuta indicele BET a trecut in forta peste rezistenta de la ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) insa a fost intors violent pana la suportul puternic din jurul valorii de 8.500 de unde a revenit vineri pe crestere peste media mobila de 50 zile. Daca suportul amintit din jurul lui 8.500 va rezista, BET poate continua cursa inceputa catre maximul istoric precedent.

BET-FI a continuat ascensiunea pana la rezistenta puternica de la 66.000, indicata in mai multe randuri in comentarii precedente, de unde s-a intors pentru doua zile, vineri revenind pe crestere. Daca aceasta rezistenta cedeaza, urmatoarea tinta va fi maximul istoric care poate fi si depasit catre valoarea de 70.000 de puncte.

SIF2 a facut noi maxime apoi s-a corectat catre media mobila de 50 zile si a testat linia de trend descendent sparta in urma cu doua saptamani. Daca cele doua suporturi mentionate vor rezista, SIF2 poate continua ascensiunea catre maximul istoric din luna ianuarie.

In mod asemanator, SIF5 a facut noi maxime si s-a corectat pana la linia de trend descendent sparta in urma cu doua saptamani, revenind vineri pe crestere. Daca linia de trend descendent fosta rezistenta transformata in suport si media mobila de 50 zile vor rezista, SIF5 poate ataca maximele istorice de la inceputul anului.

Dow Jones is testing the 13000..

..although previous uptrend line support might turn resistance..while "watching trading volume fade . . .".

A Peculiar Balance

Good trading is a peculiar balance between the conviction to follow your ideas and the flexibility to recognize when you have made a mistake.

Michael Steinhardt

Source:

Trading Quotes

EURUSD potential monthly breakout..

As noted in a previous post, the downtrend line coming from the 1994 and 2004 highs on the monthly charts should pose strong resistance. After several days of testing the area just below the trend line (see the daily chart below), EURUSD managed to pierce it today. Nevertheless, on a monthly chart (above), this may be only a false breakout for the moment unless we see strong follow through beyond 1.3500. In case of a real breakout, the 2004 highs around 1.3665 and beyond should be reachable targets in the near future.

Gold continues the uptrend..

As noted in "Gold starts rising again..", Gold returned to the bullish side, stumbled over the last Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) of the correction from the upper to the lower bullish channel lines then exploded towards the latest highs around 688. If the mentioned highs are surpassed, the upper bullish channel resistance and last year's highs around 730 will be the next targets.

Aprecierea leului este de neoprit..

In ciuda incercarilor BNR de a opri indirect caderea cursului EURRON prin sterilizari monetare masive sau prin reducerea ratei dobanzii de referinta, leul isi continua nestingherit aprecierea, ajungand aproape de al doilea prag important (de care aminteam si intr-un post de anul trecut) aflat in jurul valorii de 3.33, dupa ce suportul de la 3.40 a cedat. Trendul EURRON este puternic descendent si cursul poate cobori catre 3.20 daca 3.33 va ceda.

Charts of Note - Indici, BRD si SIFe

Evolutia ascendenta a indicelui BET este franata de ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a corectiei din luna martie. Rezistenta se doveste puternica iar strapungerea ei va declansa probabil o accelerare a ascensiunii catre vechile maxime. Pana atunci nu exista nici un motiv de a fi bullish..

BRD n-a reusit sa treaca de ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a corectiei din martie, testata de doua ori. Daca o va strapunge, va putea ataca maximele istorice, altfel va ramane probabil in intervalul dintre 20 si 22.

Indicele BET-C a facut o retragere completa catre maximele din februarie dupa ce a scapat de ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a corectiei din martie. Daca va face noi maxime, BET-C poate urca spre limita superioara a canalului ascendent, altfel probabil se va intoarce catre media mobila de 50 zile.

Aceiasi ultima retragere Fibonacci a corectiei din martie + media mobila de 50 zile s-au constituit in rezistenta puternica pentru indicele BET-FI. Odata depasite aceste bariere, indicele a avansat puternic, spargand si linia de trend descendent, facand deja o retragere completa a corectiei din martie. Daca va reusi sa faca noi maxime, BET-FI poate ataca maximele istorice ale acestui an, altfel se va retrage catre media mobila de 50 zile!

Asemeni BET-FI, atat SIF2 cat si SIF5 s-au intors la maximele de la sfarsitul lui februarie dupa ce au depasit rezistenta ultimei retrageri Fibonacci, spargand si linia de trend descendent. Daca vor reusi sa depaseasca aceste maxime, se pot indrepta catre maximele istorice ale anului, altfel se vor retrage catre media mobila de 50 zile.

SIF3 a reusit sa depaseasca maximele istorice din acest an si urmatoarea tinta ar putea fi extensia Fibonacci de 161.8% a corectiei de la maximele din 3 ianuarie pana la minimele din martie.