Monday, June 13, 2011

US 10-year Treasury Yield Halts on Target?

As noted in a previous post, the US 10-year treasury yield started a downtrend that signaled turning points for the other asset classes (commodities, equities and the US dollar). In the updated weekly chart above and daily chart below we can see the two discussed targets, 3.05 - 3.10 area and 2.90 were sequentially reached around monthly cycle lines.

The consistent break of the 2.90 area this month could send the US 10-year treasury yield towards last year's low around 2.35 and could also keep pressure on equities and commodities while potentially pushing the dollar higher during the summer and year end. If the 2.90 area is holding this month then we could see summer relief rallies in equities and commodities and continuing dollar weakness at least until autumn or literally "fall" :).

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