Monday, May 16, 2011

Key Global Events - The Week Behind and Ahead On May 15th

Big Picture succinct summation of week’s events (ending on May 13th):


1) UoM confidence jumps back to average level of the year as one year inflation expectations dip to 4.4% from 4.6%

2) 5 month low in mortgage rates leads to 9% jump in refi’s and 6.7% rise in purchase application

3) Germany and France lead solid Q1 GDP growth for Euro zone but sustainability in question

4) Hong Kong economy grew 11.2% annualized in Q1

5) China again raises reserve requirements after 5.3% CPI print and greater than expected loan growth.


1) CPI, PPI continue to rise with CPI now back above 3% y/o/y

2) Inflation takes bite out of April retail sales as sales ex gasoline rise just .2%

3) Initial Jobless Claims above 400k for a 5th straight week and 4 week average now at the highest since Nov

4) Weak US$, energy prices and higher Chinese labor costs lead to 11.1% y/o/y gain in Import Prices

5) NFIB small business optimism index falls to lowest since Sept with most growth categories lower and price index higher

6) BoE’s King says UK in stagflationary environment, is it headed here?

7) Political infighting amongst the EU, IMF, ECB and individual country members continue to drag out the fate of the Greek’s.

Goldman lists the key economic events in the upcoming week, which will likely be dominated by news of the surreal IMF scandal that has taken the financial world by storm.

Last week’s flow of cyclical data was broadly encouraging. However, cyclical currencies traded weak against the USD. In addition, the Greece situation stood at the forefront of market attention. This week will offer us more on that front with the Ecofin/Eurogroup meetings on Monday. Other than that, we have important cyclical data this week with the Philly Fed on Thursday standing out as the key forward-looking indicator. It will also be interesting to watch trends in initial claims, which has been volatile recently. Finally, Fed Chairman Dudley’s speech will be interesting to follow, together with FOMC minutes.

Monday May 16th:

Ecofin/Eurogroup meeting will be key to watch in terms of ongoing developments in the management of the Greek crisis.

US May Empire Manufacturing Survey. The week starts with one of the interesting regional manufacturing surveys in the US. Consensus expects a moderate decline to 20 from 21.7.

Hungary Monetary Policy Meeting. We do not expect rate hikes from the NBH, in line with consensus.

Also interesting: US May Home Builders Survey May, TIC DATA, Poland March Current Account.

Tuesday May 17th:

UK April CPI. We will watch UK inflation data closely in order to assess the likelihood of tighter financial conditions in the UK going forward. For the next CPI release, GS expects a print of about 0.7%, slightly below consensus of 0.8%.

US Housing Starts. We expect housing starts in April to have increased by 5% mom vs consensus expectations of 3.8%.

US IP: We expect IP to have increased by 0.5%mom in April, close to consensus expectations of 0.4% mom.

Also interesting: Australia RBA minutes, South Africa April CPI, Apr & March Retail Sales.

Wednesday May 18th:

UK MPC Minutes: Watching the ongoing developments in the balance of opinions within the MPC and the assessments on growth and inflation dynamics will be key in order to assess the balance of risks to rates, which will also be significant for price action in the GBP as well.

US FOMC Minutes will likely provide more insight into the balance of opinions within the FOMC.

Fed Speakers: St Louis Fed Pres Bullard

Also interesting: Japan Tankan, Malaysia CPI Apr, GDP Q1

Thursday May 19th:

US Philadelphia Fed. Philly Fed is among the key leading indicators ahead of the ISM and a significant input to our own Global Leading Indicators. We expect a rebound from last month’s low print of 18.5. This month will likely come in at 22, mildly above consensus of 20.

US Jobless claims

Fed Speakers: NY Fed Pres Dudley

Also interesting: US April Existing Home Sales


Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (5.13.11)
A Look At Key Global Events In The Upcoming Week

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