Below you have some healthy advice about the "The Folly of Forecasting":
"Whenever you find yourself reading (or watching) someone who tells you where a stock or the markets are going, consider these factors:
- No one truly knows what tomorrow will bring. Nobody. Any and all forecasts are, at best, educated guesses.
- All prognostications are instantly stale, subject to further revision. Conditions change, new data are released, events unfold. Yesterday's prediction can be undone by tomorrow's press release.
- In order to "become right," some investors will stand by their predictions despite a stock or the market going the opposite way, hoping to be proven correct. Ned Davis called this the curse of "being right rather than making money."
Allan Roth - 5 Financial Predictions for 2011
Barry Ritholtz - The Folly of Forecasting