Sunday, January 24, 2010

SNP: Lupta dintre tauri si ursi continua

Spre deosebire de alte actiuni romanesti care si-au continuat trendul ascendent pana in vara anului 2007, SNP a facut top la 0.6550 pe 3 februarie 2006 de unde incep trasate cicluri temporale de 34 saptamani pe graficul de mai sus. Se observa ca ultimul ciclu de 34 saptamani ce se incheie saptamana aceasta a fost unul de consolidare dupa miscarea de reversal din ciclul precedent, pretul osciland in jurul mediilor de 20 si 50 saptamani, fara a avea trend pe MACD dar situat in teritoriu pozitiv, cu volume in scadere si subperformant fata de indicele BETXT.

Dintr-o persepectiva a valurilor Elliot, putem emite ipoteza ca ne aflam in valul B (unul flat) sau inceputul valului ascendent C al miscarii corective ABC ce urmeaza celor 5 valuri evidentiate pe grafic ale trendului descendent precedent. De asemenea putem anticipa ca ultimul val C ascendent se poate finaliza in urmatorul ciclu temporal de 34 saptamani intre 29 ianuarie 2010 si 24 septembrie 2010.

Se observa ca pana acum pretul SNP si-a construit rezistenta la extensia Fibonacci de 161.8% (0.2900) a valului Elliot 5. In ipoteza inceperii (continuarii) valului ascendent corectiv C, zona target poate fi intre 0.3650 (fosta zona suport) si 0.3800 (50% retragere Fibonacci High – Low) sau 0.4000 (extensia de 261.8% a valului Elliot 5). Trebuie remarcata si SMA200 saptamanala ce coboara spre aceiasi zona target si poate constitui o rezistenta importanta precum si un magnet de pret. O iesire din consolidare sub suportul din jurul 0.2200 (varful valului Elliot 4 corectiv) are implicatii bearish importante.

Mai sus observam graficul SNP cu cicluri temporale de 55 zile pornind din 25 februarie 2009, ziua minimului de la 0.1120. Pretul numai ce a intrat in urmatorul ciclu temporal pe 18-01-2010 care va tine pana pe 05-04-2010. Pe parcursul ultimelor 2 cicluri pretul a fost intr-o consolidare dreptunghiulara intre 0.2430 si 0.2930 in care se da o lupta apriga intre tauri si ursi, nici unii nici altii neavand convingerea suficienta pentru a iesi din acest range. Free-float-ul de 8% al SNP este impartit probabil in special intre numerosi investitori institutionali puternici cu opinii contrare (dovada fiind numarul mare de rapoarte publicate despre SNP pentru clienti institutionali) care au determinat aceasta consolidare indelungata. Formatiunile de tip dreptunghiular, mai ales daca nu se produc dupa o perioada de scaderi sunt de natura conflictuala (intre tauri si ursi) si de consolidare si mai putin de indecizie. Din acest motiv exista o probabilitate mai mare de breakout in sus decat in jos, desi nu este exclusa a doua varianta.

Momentan pretul SNP (supravandut dupa Stochastic) se retrage de la rezistenta 0.2930 pe volume in scadere (bullish) catre suportul EMA50 si fosta rezistenta si potential suport de la 0.2700. Daca acest nivel de pret cedeaza, baza dreptunghiului si SMA200 ar trebui sa fie urmatorul suport in zona 0.2430.

Daca pretul SNP face breakout in sus din consolidare, in urmatorul ciclu temporal ce se incheie de Pasti prima zona target poate fi intre 0.3230 – 0.3430 (extensia Fibonacci 161.8% si 200% a inaltimii dreptunghiului). A doua zona target (unde se plaseaza si extensia Fibonacci 261.8% a inaltimii dreptunghiului) este cea identificata pe graficul saptamanal.

Scenariu Long:

BUY la 0.3030 (3% peste latura superioara a dreptunghiului 0.2930), SL la 0.29, TP1 la 0.3430 cu RR (Reward/Risk): 3.08, TP2 la 0.3650 cu RR: 4.77, TP3 la 0.38 cu RR: 5.92.

BUY agresiv la 0.27, SL la 0.25 (-7%), TP1 la 0.3430 cu RR: 3.65, TP2 la 0.3650 cu RR: 4.75, TP3 la 0.38, RR: 5.50.

Scenariu Short:

SELL la 0.2350 (3% sub latura inferioara a dreptunghiului), SL la 0.2500, TP1 la 0.2130 cu RR: 1.72, TP2 la 0.1930 cu RR: 3.63.


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