Sarbatori fericite - Happy Holidays !!!

Craciun fericit si un an nou sanatos si bogat in trenduri si profituri !!!

Merry Christmas and a Healthy New Year full of trends and profits !!!

Indicii bursieri la final de an..

In ultima zi de tranzactionare a anului 2006, BET a facut o intoarcere brusca exact din acelasi suport amintit de mai multe ori: 7.850. Acest suport a fost testat de nenumarate ori in decurs de mai mult de o luna, rezistand de fiecare data, iar daca primele sedinte de tranzactionare din 2007 vor confirma, atunci cel mai probabil ca vom asista la reluarea trendului ascendent, plecand de la aceasta baza construita in jurul lui 7.850.



BET-C a testat o linie de trend venita din iulie, care a rezistat in ultima zi de tranzactionare a anului 2006. Daca va rezista si in primele sedinte de tranzactionare ale lui 2007, sunt multe sanse sa vedem noi maxime ale indicelui in perioada urmatoare.

Indicele BET-FI este cel care pare cel mai hotarat sa faca noi maxime la inceputul anului viitor. In ultima zi de tranzactionare a lui 2006, BET-FI a trecut peste ultima retragere Fibonacci, de 61.8%, rezistenta testata si in ultimele doua zile bursiere precedente, dar fara succes. Astfel, indicele este pregatit sa atace rapid si agresiv maximele din noiembrie, urmand probabil sa asistam la noi maxime.

Leul isi arata din nou coltzii..

..la valute. Astazi EURRON a strapuns violent suportul 3.40, scazand chiar si sub 3.37 in timpul sedintei de tranzactionare valutara interbancara, BNR raportand la ora 13 un curs de 3.3801.

Asa cum banuiam intr-un post trecut, caderea redutei 3.40 s-a facut nestingherita de vreo interventie din partea Bancii Centrale, insa in functie de amploarea si viteza continuarii acestui trend sub pragul de 3.40, BNR ar putea interveni in orice moment. Daca in America interventia se face cu vorbe, in Romania probabil va fi nevoie de "cash" din visterie pentru a putea preveni adancirea unui soc economic generat de aprecierea excesiva si accelerata a monedei nationale.

History Repeats Itself

"History repeats itself in the stock market. Many price patterns and price consolidation structures that stocks form are repeated over and over again."

William J. O'Neil

Source:
Trading Quotes

Chart of the Day - BET

Indicele BET se apropie periculos de suportul de 7.850 testat de multe ori pana acum iar ruperea acestuia deschide calea spre minimul din 17 noiembrie de la 7.735 si spre urmatorul suport important aflat la 7.500. Ultima zi de tranzactionare a anului 2006 si primele zile de tranzactionare ale anului 2007 vor fi probabil decisive pentru evolutia indicelui pe termen mediu.

Gold Correction

The Bullish Golden Route is having a setback towards the lower uptrend channel support. The 630 line gave way and already retraced 50% of the latest rally (572 - 649). The area between 600 and 610 should be a strong support that will probably bottom this correction.

SIFele dansand pe ritm de Fibonacci

SIF5 si-a facut vineri cursa pana la ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) a ultimei corectii (3.70 - 3.04), retragere aflata la 3.45. Acolo vanzatorii au aparut si au intors pretul, inchizand ziua de vineri tot acolo unde s-a deschis, la 3.37.

La Sibiu, DESIF5-MAR07 a strapuns retragerea de 50% a cursei de corectie (4.42 - 3.20), retragere care a adus vanzatori mai multi ce-au coborat pretul la..

..retragerea Fibonacci de 38.2% a ultimei curse ascendente (3.28 - 3.84). Pentru ca aceasta ultima cursa ascendenta sa continue, pretul nu trebuie sa coboare sub ultima retragere de 61.8% aflata la 3.50.

SIF2 s-a manifestat similar. Pe spot pretul a fost mai jucaus si a intepat retragerea de 61.8% (la 3.16) a corectiei (3.42 - 2.73), dar vanzatorii au avut grija vineri ca inchiderea sa se faca sub acest prag, sub deschidere si pe minim (la 3.11).

Pe futures, DESIF2-MAR07 a trecut fugitiv prin retragerea de 50% a cursei de corectie (4.11 - 2.95), pretul fiind adus apoi rapid sub deschidere pana la..

..38.2% din ultima cursa ascendenta (2.9500 - 3.5650). La fel, cursa ascendenta are sanse in continuare daca pretul nu coboara sub ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) aflata la 3.18.

Urmand evolutia SIFelor in ansamblu, indicele BET-FI a prospectat destul teren peste ultimul prag Fibonacci (61.8%) al ultimei corectii, dar inchiderea s-a facut sub acesta si chiar sub deschidere. Concluzia: inca nu este momentul..:)

Donchian's 20 Trading Guides

General Guides

1. Beware of acting immediately on a widespread public opinion. Even if correct, it will usually delay the move.

2. From a period of dullness and inactivity, watch for and prepare to follow a move in the direction in which volume increases.

3. Limit losses and ride profits, irrespective of all other rules.

4. Light commitments are advisable when market position is not certain. Clearly defined moves are signaled frequently enough to make life interesting and concentration on these moves will prevent unprofitable whip-sawing.

5. Seldom take a position in the direction of an immediately preceding three-day move. Wait for a one-day reversal.

6. Judicious use of stop orders is a valuable aid to profitable trading. Stops may be used to protect profits, to limit losses, and from certain formations such as triangular foci to take positions. Stop orders are apt to be more valuable and less treacherous if used in proper relation the the chart formation.

7. In a market in which upswings are likely to equal or exceed downswings, heavier position should be taken for the upswings for percentage reasons - a decline from 50 to 25 will net only 50% profit, whereas an advance from 25 to 50 will net 100%

8. In taking a position, price orders are allowable. In closing a position, use market orders."

9. Buy strong-acting, strong-background commodities and sell weak ones, subject to all other rules.

10. Moves in which rails lead or participate strongly are usually more worth following than moves in which rails lag.

11. A study of the capitalization of a company, the degree of activity of an issue, and whether an issue is a lethargic truck horse or a spirited race horse is fully as important as a study of statistical reports.

Technical Guides

1. A move followed by a sideways range often precedes another move of almost equal extent in the same direction as the original move. Generally, when the second move from the sideways range has run its course, a counter move approaching the sideways range may be expected.

2. Reversal or resistance to a move is likely to be encountered:
- On reaching levels at which in the past, the commodity has fluctuated for a considerable length of time within a narrow range
- On approaching highs or lows

3. Watch for good buying or selling opportunities when trend lines are approached, especially on medium or dull volume. Be sure such a line has not been hugged or hit too frequently.

4. Watch for "crawling along" or repeated bumping of minor or major trend lines and prepare to see such trend lines broken.

5. Breaking of minor trend lines counter to the major trend gives most other important position taking signals. Positions can be taken or reversed on stop at such places.

6. Triangles of ether slope may mean either accumulation or distribution depending on other considerations although triangles are usually broken on the flat side.

7. Watch for volume climax, especially after a long move.

8. Don't count on gaps being closed unless you can distinguish between breakaway gaps, normal gaps and exhaustion gaps.

9. During a move, take or increase positions in the direction of the move at the market the morning following any one-day reversal, however slight the reversal may be, especially if volume declines on the reversal.

Source:
Richard Donchian

A trader's perspective on the world..:)

"..Traders have no choice but to "ignore reality" and go for the ride. A turret-bound buddy wrote me:

"I don't care about the numbers, the economic data, whether Iraq is in a Civil war, if the President gets impeached, who controls congress, what a company does, whether we fall into a recession or if China buys Europe and turns it into a Disney theme park. My world is defined by what I see on my four 20 inch monitors in front of me. Everything else is noise."

That's what is driving the markets."

Source:

Reality Check

The Big Picture

Charts of the Day - SIF5, DESIF5-MAR07, SIF2, DESIF2-MAR07, BET-FI, ATB, BET

O lumanare japoneza lunga ce strapunge rezistenta mediei mobile de 50 zile confirma o potentiala baza aflata deasupra maximelor din februarie, de unde cresterile se pot relua. Avem asadar un semnal de cumparare, cu stop sub suportul reprezentat de maximele aminitite din februarie.



Observam ca piata futures a SIF5 MAR07 a construit o baza similara aflata la ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) de unde au reinceput cresterile, anticipandu-le pe cele de pe bursa cu 2-3 zile inainte, fiind confirmate pe ambele piete astazi.



SIF2 si-a construit o baza atat deasupra maximelor din februarie cat si deasupra mediei mobile de 50 zile, confirmand astazi pe volum reluarea cresterilor si generand un semnal de cumparare, cu stop sub maximele din februarie.

La fel ca DESIF5-MAR07, DESIF2-MAR07 si-a construit baza la ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%) si a reinceput cresterile, astazi fiind confirmate pe volum.

BET-FI pare ca si-a incheiat incursiunea spre sud la media mobila de 50 zile, ascensiunea de astazi ajungand la ultima retragere Fibonacci (calculata la inchideri) a cursei de corectie dintre 63.702 si 56.909. Urmeaza retragerea totala spre ultimele topuri.

Ca si o curiozitate, corectia pe ATB s-a incheiat tot la ultima retragere Fibonacci (61.8%), construind apoi o baza deasupra mediei mobile de 50 zile si reluand astazi cresterile.

BET incearca sa-si construiasca o baza deasupra suportului din jurul lui 7.850 si sa se mentina deasupra liniei de trend ascendent ce provine de la minimul de 7.735 din noiembrie, dar nu reuseste sa sparga cu hotarare rezistenta mediei mobile de 50 zile. Indicele BET nu a confirmat inca o reluare a cresterilor, insa ultimele trei zile de tranzactionare ale anului 2006 ar trebui sa ne aduca aceasta confirmare, altfel nu sunt excluse alte minime.

Romania si Leul

Romania si leul ei devin vizibile si peste Ocean, fiind descoperite intr-un post pe un blog american, e adevarat, in spiritul altui post legat de Pakistan:))

"In the spirit of my post last night about Pakistan, here is a PDF about Romania which is trying to get into the EU and then the EMU further down the road. The report notes some genuine obstacles to overcome with various imbalances and inflation but what it interesting is that the currency, the Leu (which is difficult to chart), is up 23% against the US dollar in the last two and half years. Oops."

Problema autorului legata de reprezentarea grafica a evolutiei Leului se rezolva insa..

"Yesterday I had a post about Romania and said I could not find a chart of the Romanian leu currency. Well, with a hat tip to Trader Mike, the new Google Finance has it.As I said yesterday, Romania has some clear and obvious obstacles to economic health yet YTD the dollar is down a lot against the leu.Chances are you don't care about the leu but the important thing is that it is becoming easier to access tools that used to only be available through a Bloomberg or some other expensive means. This evolution, although obvious, is very empowering for the do-it-yourselfer. And some bad video to go with this... "

Ceea ce nu stie autorul este ca acel "bad video" (de acord cu el..) de prezentare a Google Finance de mai sus este facut de un roman angajat la Google, Vivi Costache :)) Probabil acesta este motivul pentru care a gasit si graficul USDRON..:))

Sursa:
Random Roger

Charts of the Day - BRD, AMO, RRC

BRD isi continua scaderea dupa ce suportul mediei mobile de 50 zile a cedat. Urmatorul prag foarte important care va fi probabil bine aparat este 17.7, fosta rezistenta din timpul verii.

Grupul de speculatori anonimi:) par sa-si fi atins scopul, cel putin din punct de vedere tehnic, ducand pretul AMO la maximele din februarie (chiar depasindu-le scurt si marginal) si probabil incepand sa verse din actiuni. Inceputul declinului? Numai ei stiu..:)

Dupa momentul spargerii canalului descendent, RRC a urcat agresiv pana astazi cand isi mai trage sufletul pe fondul marcarii de profit. Pragul de 0.0870 (veche rezistenta si medie mobila) ar trebui sa reprezinte un suport puternic.

Chart of the Day - AMO

Dupa un prim test respins violent al retragerii Fibonacci de 61.8% , AMO si-a strans puterile (a se citi speculatorii) si vineri a trecut in forta, pe volume record, de ultima reduta a matematicianului italian, inchizand deasupra acesteia. Urmarea de astazi a fost..o deschidere (si inchidere) in limita superioara de variatie zilnica (+15%), ramanand acolo aproape intreaga zi de tranzactionare in conditiile in care vanzatorii disparusera din ASK. Nu e rau pentru o companie in prag de faliment..:)

Chart of the Week - EURUSD

Above we have the Friday eurodollar show (on a 5 minute chart) with around 100 pips up and then around 150 pips down in three hours and a half!:) The event behind the show: Non-Farm Payrolls.

The hourly chart above shows us the triple top of last week and the break of a support around 1.3260, which should become the next resistance on the way back.

The Right Side

They say there are two sides to everything. But there is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.

Jesse Livermore

Source:

Trading Quotes

Charts of the Day - SIF5, SIF2, BET-FI, RRC, BET

SIF5 a strapuns luni media mobila de 50 zile, marti a atins suportul format din maximele de la inceputul lui februarie iar astazi a revenit inapoi spre media mobila. Daca in zilele urmatoare se vor face noi maxime si va inchide peste media mobila, trendul ascendent se poate relua, altfel vom asista probabil la noi minime.

O evolutie asemanatoare cu SIF5 a avut si SIF2, acesta chiar reusind astazi sa inchida peste media mobila.

Asa cum observam intr-un post anterior, 56.500 - 57.000 este un suport destul de puternic sustinut si de media mobila de 50 zile din care astazi indicele "a sarit" dupa caderea generata de dublu top si strapungerea unei linii de trend ascendent. Cu toate acestea, daca suportul mentionat nu tine, putem asista la o corectie mai adanca spre maximele din ianuarie - februarie (55.000) si linia de trend ascendent venita din iulie sau chiar spre pragul psihologic de 50.000.

Dupa un mic recul de la primul test al rezistentei canalului descendent, astazi RRC a trecut din nou peste media mobila de 50 zile si a strapuns linia de trend descendent, astfel dand un semnal de cumparare care trebuie confirmat maine.



Canalul ascendent observat intr-un post recent n-a rezistat dar suportul de 7.850 a tinut iar indicele s-a intors astazi, testand canalul ascendent spart. O revenire a trendului ascendent insa nu se poate concretiza decat dupa ce va inchide hotarat peste media mobila de 50 zile, testata fara succes de patru ori in ultimele saptamani.

On financial speculations..

It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong.

George Soros

Leul se zburleste la valute..

In graficul saptamanal al EURRON se observa ca ne apropiem de suportul aparat agresiv de BNR in vara anului trecut (3.40). O cadere sub acest prag ar putea determina BNR sa intervina din nou, desi exista destul de multe sanse sa nu o faca si de data aceasta.

Astazi BNR a folosit pentru prima data dupa mult timp o parghie mai voalata de control a cursului de schimb, determinand reducerea dobanzilor prin atragerea a mai putin de 100% din oferta de lei a bancilor din sistem astfel ducand la micsorarea diferentialului de dobanda fata de alte piete, in incercarea de-a reduce apetitul speculatorilor transfrontalieri. (Sursa: ZF)

Daca insa cursul va cadea nestingherit sub 3.40, BNR ar putea interveni la trecerea prin anumite suporturi tehnice cum ar fi 3.35, 3.20, 3.00 sau prin orice alt suport ales de guvernatorul Isarescu:))



USDRON este in cadere libera intocmai cum se afla si dollarul pe pietele internationale (vs. alte monede, in special EUR si GBP). O interventie in forta a BNR pe piata EURRON (in principal) se va face insa simtita si pe USDRON.

Warren Buffett Quotes..

"Associate with people who are better than you. Marry up, employ up, work for your heroes. Associations rub off. Tell me your heroes, I’ll tell you how you’ll turn out. "

"Ben Graham’s success exercise.
Take one hour. Think of the one classmate who you’d like to own 10% of for the rest of their life. 10% of all of their future income. What do you think about? The person who others admire and want to work with. Person who works hard and gives others credit. It’s simple. Select those qualities for yourself.

Now the fun part: who would you want to short? The guy who turns other people off.
Qualities are chosen.

Ben Graham did that. Wrote everything on a piece of paper and developed habits. You will find that you can attain or get rid of qualities accordingly. "

Source:
Warren Buffett and the Chicago Graduate School of Business
by Aquamarine Fund Diary

Folly Of Emotions

The main obstacle lies in distancing ourselves from our emotions.

Bernard Baruch

Source:
Trading Quotes

Chart of the Day - BET

Incercarea indicelui de-a trece de linia mobila de 50 de zile a esuat luni si marti, astazi continuand pe scadere. Daca tentativa de canal ascendent va avea succes, vom afla maine, altfel scaderea va continua iarasi spre suportul din jurul valorii de 7.850.

Eurodollar may take a breather..

As we see on the daily chart above, a 261.8% Fibonacci extension (at 1.3217) of the last large bearish daily swing (1.2764 - 1.2483) has been reached.

On the weekly chart above wee see that the same top at 1.3217 is a 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the last large bearish weekly swing (1.2937 - 1.2483). We notice that the 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located exactly at the last 2004 highs (around 1.3665).

The 1.3217 top should act as intermediary resistance and trigger a correction that will offer new opportunities to enter long. The extent of the correction should not exceed 1.2980 (which was the top of the 6-month range) and be short-lived.

Survival First

Survive first and make money afterwards.

George Soros

Source:
Trading Quotes

Warren Buffett..

Enjoy the guru..it's a pretty long recording but it's worth watching it!

Source:
Warren Buffett at The University of Florida
by Daily Dose of Optimism

The Bullish GOLDen Route

Gold has eventually managed to decisively break and close above the last Fibonacci retracement (61.8%) of the 676 - 559 trip and started the full retracement back towards 675, as noted in a previous post. The upper bull trend channel from October and the previous highs at around 655 might pose some resistance while 630 should become support.



The bullish route is backed by higher commercials net shorts and finally by increasing open interest (as seen in the chart above) which strengthens the trend.

DJIA is finally plunging..

The panic correction day has come in US..on a Monday..kind of a Black Monday, though it's not that black..just yet. The lower bull trend channel propped the fall today and if it gives in tomorrow, the next significant support is around 11.980 which can still keep the bull trend alive in the short to medium term.

It will be interesting to watch how much this deep US stock market correction will influence other stock markets, including the Romanian one which closed positive today though the stock futures market closed pretty much in red (a rather unusual event).

A possible explanation of the plunge..

"CNBC's Bob Pisani quotes several unnamed traders who have said that in light of the dollar drop, overseas investors are repatriating some cash, locking in their profits for the year, and eliminating additional currency risk . . . "

Source:

The Big Picture

A Story About Trading..:))

"There's a great story about a famous local trader at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). One day, he was on the floor of the CBOT and a U.S. inflation number came out that was totally unexpected. Pure pandemonium ensued. When all the noise died down, he walked out of the pit having made $10 million and said, "By the way, what was the number?"

Source:
Quote of the Week
by TaylorTree

Chart of the Day - RRC: Revenirea..

Dupa exact o luna, RRC inchide peste media mobila de 50 de zile si este pe punctul de a strapunge canalul descendent in care s-a aflat din octombrie, confirmand astfel formarea unui "bottom" testat de trei ori la 0.08 si reintrarea pe un trend ascendent. Insa sa vedem mai intai iesirea din canal..

BET on BET

Indicele BET a rezistat saptamana trecuta deasupra maximelor verii si a liniei de trend crescator venita de la sfarsitul lui august, corectand cele doua zile de cresteri impulsive de acum o saptamana si nefacand noi minime. Zona in care se afla este critica, o nou scadere serioasa sub ultimele minime putand declansa o scadere abrupta spre urmatorul suport dintre 7.500 - 7.600. Daca acest lucru nu se va intampla, putem asista la o reluare a trendului crescator. Asadar let's BET on BET daca vom avea o noua saptamana de scaderi sau reluarea cresterilor!:))

BET-FI a facut noi maxime istorice marginale la inceputul saptamanii si a inceput o corectie care ar putea continua. Cu toate acestea, zona 56.500 - 57.000 pare sa fie un suport puternic, intarit acum si de linia mobila de 50 zile + prima retragere Fibonacci (23.6%) si deci e putin probabil ca BET-FI sa faca noi minime pe aceasta corectie.

The eurodollar has escaped the leash

As observed in a previous post, the dollar weakness resumed and the long waited EURUSD breakout of a 6 month range and the break of an inverse head and shoulders neck eventually happened on Friday. On the daily chart above there are several technical indicators that support a continuation of the bullish trend. Apart from the breakout resistance that should become support at around 1.2980, we have a 10-day moving average at around 1.2875 which has been well tested since the end of October indicating a bullish sign and ascending support. The ADX is at trending levels (30 on Friday, a minimum of 25 is needed) with +DI furthering away from -DI and the Stochastic indicator reaches overbought levels but it prepares to stay there for a longer period of time.

On a monthly chart (above) we see that last week we had a break of the last Fibonacci retracement (61.8%) of the 1.3665 - 1.1640 trip, a break which this time was confirmed by a close above the Fibo level. This chart shows us two potential resistance levels before the last top (at 1.3665). The first one is around 1.33 (previous tops from a time when the chart was drawn using a basket of the currencies that disappeared when euro appeared in 1999) and the second one is towards 1.35 where we have a downward trend line coming from the 1995 highs.

The weekly chart (above) shows us the downward trend line broken two weeks ago and the breakout of a 6-month-500-pip range. The EURUSD may run at least another 500 pips toward 1.35 where we have the 1995 started downward trend line we've seen on the monthly chart. Both ADX (25) and Stochastic are at trend ready levels but need confirmation. The same is true for the 50 day moving average which is about to cross the 100 day moving average. Since these crosses are lagging indicators of a trend, we can only imagine that we have a continuation of the bullish trend which will be confirmed at a later time by the crossing of the said moving averages.

DENNIS GARTMAN'S NOT-SO-SIMPLE RULES OF TRADING

1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position... not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is trading's carcinogen; it is trading's driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!

2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.

3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.

4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.

5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand it however, and fewer still embrace it.

6. "Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent." These are Keynes' words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.

7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.

8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.

9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly. In "good times," even errors turn to profits; in "bad times," the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.

10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we've known have the simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!

11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, "When they are cryin', you should be buyin'! And when they are yellin', you should be sellin'!"

12. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are; we accept it as fact and we move on.

13. There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow... usually hard upon and always with detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.

14. Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year... and our profits grow accordingly.

15. Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a "secret" to trading (and of life), this is it.

16. All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken.... but only very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and still prosper.


Source:
It's All About Your Time Frame
by John Mauldin

Predictie BET Reloaded

Predictia BET de duminica trecuta a fost infirmata de piata, inchiderile nedecise ale celor mai importante titluri componente ale indicelui dand nastere la noi scaderi in saptamana ce tocmai a trecut. Inchiderea de vineri insa, desi fortata pe ultimele minute ale sedintei de tranzactionare, da semnale de intoarcere.

Indicele BET atinge maximele din august care s-au transformat din rezistenta in suport si se intoarce nervos, putand astfel semnala o intoarcere pentru saptamanile urmatoare.

BRD inteapa media mobila suport de 50 zile si se intoarce apoi peste maximele ultimelor doua saptamani.

SNP inteapa suportul aflat la 0.57 si o linie de trend ascendent venita din iulie apoi se intoarce peste inchiderea din ziua precedenta si peste media mobila de 50 zile.

TLV inteapa adanc suportul si posibila baza de range de la 1.0 si inchide tot acolo, dar inca nu sunt destule semnale pentru o intoarcere desi pot aparea curand.

RRC incheie ultima zi a saptamanii intr-un "Doji", adica indecis, dar care se poate constitui in semnal de intoarcere venind dupa cateva zile de scaderi, insa trebuie confirmat.

SIF2 se apropie foarte mult de maximele din februarie transformate in suport cat si de media mobila de 50 zile dar este intors violent si inchide ziua de vineri pe plus intr-o lumanare care poate semnifica intoarcere.

SIF5 inchide ziua de vineri la acelasi pret la care a deschis-o, dar dupa o incursiune adanca spre suportul reprezentat de maximele din octombrie si media mobila de 50 zile. Iarasi semnal de intoarcere, daca va fi confirmat maine.

Vineri la BMFMS, DESIF2 si DESIF5 DEC06 si MAR07 au testat minimele de marti sau au facut alte minime marginale dupa care s-au intors cel putin peste maximele din ziua precedenta dand semnale de intoarcere (spre deosebire de vinerea trecuta cand inchiderile au fost sub forma de "shooting star", adica semnaland scaderi). De asemenea se poate observa ca pe futures corectia pe derivatele ambelor SIFuri si pe cele doua scadente a fost de 50% si 61.8%, deci daca ne aflam in continuare pe un trend ascendent pe termen mediu, am putea spune ca minimele corectiei au fost deja atinse.

Asadar avem destule semnale care sa ne indice o incheiere a corectiei atat pe SIFuri cat si pe BET, dar aceste semnale trebuie confirmate in primele zile ale noii saptamani. Sa le vedem..