Wednesday, January 05, 2011

US 10-year Treasury Note Yield Uptrend Correction

The minimum target of the H&S formation (mentioned in a previous post) was reached and well exceeded on the US 10-year Treasury Note yields pushing up to 73.6% retracement (of the April - October 2010 descent) in a 5 wave fashion. The assumption is that the 5-wave structure is complete with symmetric wave 1 and 3, zig-zag wave 4 and a longer final wave 5.

An ABC correction is more likely to follow with first target 3.10 - 3.15 (cycle-wise potentially in the second week of January 2011) and then around 3.00, though a downfall can go as low as 2.75 without reversing the uptrend started in October 2010. If / When December highs are exceeded, the obvious target is the April 2010 high around 4.00.

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